Build the Lighthouse: Creating Business Certainty in Uncertain Times

Rarely has the phrase ‘adapt or die’ been so relevant for leaders. Whilst businesses have always had to evolve to remain competitive, historically they’ve had the luxury of doing this at their own pace and comfort level. Now, change is being forced on organisations.

Whatever your opinion on the current, rapidly shifting economic and geopolitical environment, it’s undeniable there is considerable business uncertainty around the short- and long-term outlook.

But just waiting for the storm to pass could be the riskiest strategy. For those who ride confidently into the storm, the opportunity for thriving, not just surviving, is there for the taking.

Or, to put it another way: when the fog is thickest, build the lighthouse.

In the same way animals have the fight, flight or freeze instinct, organisations generally default to freezing when facing business uncertainty. This leads to pausing, delaying or even cancelling projects. It’s human nature to cling to sources of stability when things are changing, but when that freeze takes hold across the entire organisation, it’s easy for everyone to get comfortable and stop progressing.

Paradoxically, halting progress at an organisational level can damage morale at an individual level. I’ve experienced this personally. A previous employer of mine stopped in their tracks when they faced uncertainty regarding a specific location’s operations. Rather than proactively seeking out alternative solutions, they zoned in on their remaining core operations. With the loss of momentum came a lack of direction and ultimately a lack of belief in leadership and the overall vision. People didn’t want to be there anymore, so they left, myself included.

I’d argue the ‘wait and see’ approach is only ever the right choice when the situation is changing extremely quickly, i.e. at the daily pace we’re seeing with the current tariff volatility. Otherwise, waiting is only delaying real decision-making and leadership, which drives further uncertainty, especially amongst your workforce, and allows competitors to advance.

So, it’s clear organisations should strive to advance, even in the face of business uncertainty. But at the same time, they need to balance risk. So where should leaders prioritise?

Well, the areas to prioritise are no different than in a stable environment: those that most closely align with your strategic objectives. These strategic initiatives can be big or small, depending on your appetite for risk and room to manoeuvre in a changing landscape. Either way, use data and insights to support decision-making and give you and your people confidence that you’re doing the right thing (but don’t get stuck in analysis paralysis, because this is giving in to the instinct to freeze!).

And of course, ensure leaders are aligned on what your strategic priorities are. Holistic, joined-up buy-in will drive progress faster, and will allow all leaders to tell the same story and articulate the same shared vision, which creates trust and a stronger sense of certainty amongst employees.

Knowing what to do is half the battle; the other half is building the mindset and culture to actually do it. Adopting an agile mindset will accelerate results and allow for rapid pivoting should the business environment shift again. If that same agile mindset can be embedded across the organisation at multiple levels, your people can iterate with the same confidence that they can adapt as required.

An agile, iterative approach will enable you to advance in more novel areas for your organisation, instead of just investing in the same avenues of comfort you’re already familiar with. AI is a great example here: an agile mindset will encourage curiosity, experimentation and failing fast, allowing organisations to seek a competitive edge when the macroenvironment is discouraging competitors from innovating.

Bear in mind, being agile doesn’t mean delaying your larger projects, which can often create bigger problems in the future. For instance, SAP users must migrate to S/4HANA by 2027, so delaying this major business transformation will only make it harder to achieve down the line when timescales are condensed and resources are scarce. Focus on celebrating successes and milestones in your large projects, so your progress is visible and people continue to be an invested and involved part of that longer journey.

As with any change, you’ll only see positive results if your people embrace and adopt it. Regardless of the scale or type of initiative, you need to align with fellow leaders on the North Star vision for your change, articulate this in a consistent and compelling way and ensure your people are involved and at the heart of all stages. These best practices help to minimise change resistance and maximise adoption, which is critical when you need to move quickly to respond to external factors.

It’s always important to be open, honest and transparent during change, but this is never more crucial than when the external environment seems uncertain. Creating confidence and trust in leadership comes from clear, aligned direction, but it also comes from honesty that leaders might not know all the answers and by welcoming others to contribute insights, ideas and feedback.

Regular two-way interactions are a strong sign of an adaptable organisation, as are recruitment and retention. Obviously, people will leave a business that lacks direction or purpose, but this also means the reverse is true; if you’re attracting and retaining talent, even during industry or economic turbulence, it’s a clear indicator you’re on a defined path and that your people are on the journey with you. Time will tell if it’s the best path, but if it’s aligned to your strategic objectives, supported by data and travelled with an agile mindset to allow for pivoting around bumps in the road, the chances are you’re going in the right direction.

Will you wait for business certainty that may never arrive? Or will you create it through clarity, confidence and decisive action?

Many leaders fear that driving change will only increase instability. But the fact is, your environment and organisation are changing all the time. By being proactive, you’re taking control and turning change into an opportunity instead of a threat.

Circling back to that company I was part of – they were acquired a year later. Their paralysis not only meant they lost a lot of good people, but their competition was able to overtake them and eventually buy them. They refused to change, but change was forced onto them in the end anyway.

The key is to frame change – in your own mind as well as those of other leaders and your workforce – as progressive, not disruptive. Aligning initiatives to strategic priorities, clearly articulating your vision and getting the right messages to the right people at the right time will position any change positively, accelerating and de-risking your progress, nurturing an adaptable culture and putting you far ahead of your competition.

Or, in other words, you will build the lighthouse that cuts through the fog.

Our team specialises in helping leaders transform business uncertainty into opportunity through pragmatic, people-centred change approaches. We partner with leaders to align initiatives with strategic priorities, build adaptable cultures and maintain momentum even in turbulent environments. Contact us today to discuss how we can help you build your lighthouse in the storm.